Mood of Nation 2019 Elections: Is Bharatiya Janata Party Falling Short Majority?

Mood of Nation 2019

The five years of Bharatiya Janata Party are coming to an end, the next year, until of course, they manage to win again. It might sound surprising, but it seems that the party which came to power in 2014 with a majority on its own might not be able to do so in the upcoming election

The Mood of Nation (MOTN) Survey

In the Mood of Nation 2019 Election Survey which was released on 18th of August, the current Prime Minister, Shree Narendra Modi has been found to be the favourite PM candidate, yet again. The incumbent Prime Minister secured 49% of the votes in the survey. The second spot was taken by none other than Mr. Rahul Gandhi.

The current PM might be the favourite candidate, but the Congress-led UPA has gained quite a lot votes even though it is still behind in terms of seats.

In the survey, three possible scenarios have been considered

Scenario 1: The UPA and NDA from 2014

In this situation, the allies are the same as they were in the previous elections. After the calculations, UPA without its allies BSP, SP, and TMC is getting 122 seats. In contrast to this, the NDA is getting a whopping 281 seats, more than twice that of UPA. Those who remain get 140 seats.

When it comes to votes, UPA is getting 31 percent, NDA, 36 percent and the other get the remaining 33 percent.

Scenario 2: UPA along with BSP, SP, and TMC

Thanks to the pre-poll alliance, in this case, the UPA is performing a lot better and are expected to get 224 seats. The NDA still lead with a total of 228 seats whereas the others will get 91 seats. In the case of votes, the UPA gets 41 percent and are quite ahead of the NDA who get 36 percent. The others manage to secure just 23 percent.

The report mentions that UPA alliance is getting fewer seats even though they have a higher vote share because the majority of votes that BJP will get are coming from specific areas like the north, west and the north-west.

Scenario 3: NDA and the Southern Allies

In this case, the NDA manages to calm down its new partners in the South. This includes AIADMK from Tamil Nadu and the YSR Congress from Andhra Pradesh. With the allies on their side, the NDA alliance manages to score 255 seats, and the UPA gets 242 seats. Whereas the others manage to secure just 46 seats.

In case, the TRS and BJP also join the NDA in the post-poll alliance; they could manage to secure 282 seats and destroy the dreams of the UPA.

When it comes to the votes, the NDA receives 41%, the UPA gets 43%, and the others get 16%.

So, going by Mood of Nation 2019 Election, in every scenario NDA is going to get more seats than the UPA.

An alternative to Shri Narendra Modi

When it comes to choosing an alternative PM, the votes were given as follows

Rahul Gandhi                    46%

Mamta Banerjee              8%

P Chidambaram               6%

Priyanka Gandhi              6%

Akhilesh Yadav                 4%

Arvind Kejriwal                 4%